Queensland energy roadmap uncovers coal hard truths

The Queensland energy roadmap, released by the Crisafulli state government on 10 October, focuses on growing the economy and attracting private sector investment to meet Queensland’s infrastructure needs. Commitments made by the state government in the document include:

• investing A$1.6 billion (approx. US$1.041 billion) into the maintenance of existing state-owned generators under the electricity maintenance guarantee;
•  implementing a clear decision-making framework for state-owned coal assets;
• attracting private sector investment into new energy infrastructure;
• outlining the roles and core responsibilities of the government and government owned corporations (GOCs) in maintaining system reliability; and
• clarifying policies, frameworks and expectations to provide certainty for investors, industry, workers and communities.

Coal and gas

The roadmap makes clear that non-renewable energy will play a significant role in the Crisafulli government’s energy policy. Coal currently makes up 64% of Queensland’s electricity production, and the roadmap argues its necessity to ensure reliability of the electricity grid. It notes that coal and gas have an ongoing role in energy production, specifically as their output is not variable dependant on weather or other factors, and states that “there is value in delivering gas-fired generation capacity as early as possible due to its ability to mitigate reliability risks”.

With a view to implementing a “clear decision-making framework for state-owned coal assets”, the roadmap provides a decision matrix centred on system need, economic viability and asset integrity, which is expected to be used to determine whether a coal asset should remain open.

Renewables

Despite its commitment to maintaining coal generated power in Queensland, the roadmap identifies the role that renewables have already played. Queensland has more solar installations than any other Australian state, with over 40% of households already having rooftop solar, according to the roadmap. The state government will also provide eligible landlords with rebates to install solar on rental properties.

However, when it comes to large-scale projects, the roadmap states that renewable projects are losing “bankability” due to supply chain constraints driving up costs. Despite these concerns, Queensland has a significant pipeline of large-scale renewable projects, with a current investment pipeline of 400 megawatts (MW) of renewable gas, 1.6 gigawatts (GW) of solar, 2.4 GW of wind and 3.6 GW of storage.

Transmission

The roadmap recognises the need to manage the distribution network in a more robust manner, particularly with the uptake in rooftop solar and smart metering systems; and identifies 10 key transmission augmentation projects to be delivered between 2025 and 2035. It also acknowledges that the ongoing use of coal reduces the immediate burden on the transmission network, allowing for a more “gradual augmentation of Queensland’s transmission network”.

Net zero commitments

The state government’s commitment to the renewable energy shift is enshrined in the Energy (Renewable Transformation and Jobs) Act 2024 (Qld) and Clean Economy Jobs Act 2024 (Qld). Within this legislation, Queensland has committed to the following timelines:

• 50% of energy generated will be from renewable energy sources by 2030;
•  70% of energy generated will be from renewable energy sources by 2032; and
• 80% of energy generated will be from renewable energy sources by 2035.

As of September 2025, Queensland’s greenhouse gas emissions were 35% below its reported 2005 levels, placing it ahead of its state target of 30% reduction, but still 8% behind the national target of 43% reduction by 2030.

Despite the Queensland government’s commitment to the renewable energy transition, the roadmap and its focus on the continuation of coal-fired generation into the 2040s does not come as a surprise. In the last 12 months, the Queensland Government has cancelled the Forest Wind Farm, the Moonlight Range Wind Farm and the Pioneer-Burdekin pumped hydro projects, and the roadmap itself confirms that coal-fired power generation will continue into the 2040s.

The state government’s position that “affordable, reliable, and sustainable energy” can only exist where there is also the fallback of coal and gas energy production, according to the roadmap, is in contrast with renewable energy policies in other states and territories, and the policies of the federal government which emphasise the need for an orderly closure of coal-fired generation plants and the use of gas as a short-term firming solution for a transitional period.

Co-written by Miranda Frith of Pinsent Masons.