High speed rail in Australia moves closer to reality

If delivered, it would create substantial opportunities for contractors, developers and construction firms in Australia. Tenders for delivery partner and adviser roles for the development phase of stage one closed on 10 April, marking a significant step towards making it a reality.

Australia is the sixth largest country in the world, with 60% of the population living on the east coast corridor between Brisbane and Melbourne. Despite the success of HSR in Japan, most of continental Europe, the UK, the Middle East and Indonesia, Australia does not have HSR. Whilst there have been many proposals since 1980, travel between Australia’s largest cities and regional centres is still dominated by plane, road and slower intercity or regional trains.

The Newcastle to Sydney HSR business case, released on 16 December 2024, lays out a vision where by 2060, Australia’s east coast will be connected by world-class HSR, extending over 1,800km between Brisbane, Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne. The business case argues that that a Newcastle to Sydney HSR is feasible, economically viable and a necessary and important priority for the country.

If HSR is constructed, it will fundamentally change the way people travel in Australia.

Prior proposals

HSR along Australia's east coast has been a recurring topic of political debate for decades, with several proposals failing to progress beyond the planning stage. These include a 1984 CSIRO proposal between Sydney, Canberra and Melbourne, a 1986 very fast train joint venture between Sydney and Canberra, and Canberra and Melbourne; and a1993 speed rail joint venture between Sydney and Canberra.

In 2010, the federal government commenced feasibility studies into HSR.

The current proposal

Following the establishment of the High-Speed Rail Authority in 2023, the federal government has launched the development phase for HSR between Newcastle and Sydney. The proposed 'line 1' will connect Newcastle to Sydney on a dedicated rail line and accommodate new trains capable of travelling at speeds of up to 320 kilometres an hour and 200 km/h inside tunnel sections. Travel times between Newcastle and Central Sydney will be cut from the current two hours and forty minutes to around one hour, with travel from the Central Coast to either Sydney or Newcastle reduced to just 30 minutes.

The Authority currently proposes six new stations along line 1: Newcastle, located in Broadmeadow, Lake Macquarie, located in Morisset, the Central Coast, located in Gosford, Sydney Central, located in Surrey Hills, Parramatta, and Western Sydney International Airport.
The line itself is substantial in scale and is currently proposed to consist of 194km of fully dedicated high-speed rail alignment, twin-bore tunnel sections totalling 115km, 38 kilometres of bridges and viaducts, and 4km of surface alignment.

Travel between the Central Coast and Sydney Central will involve around 30 minutes of travel in tunnels.

The business case proposes a minimum frequency of three trains per hour, with up to six trains per hour at peak times. It anticipates that operations between Central Newcastle and Western Sydney International Airport will require 20 trains, with 17 in-service, one on standby and two maintenance spares, and identifies that the fleet maintenance facility will be located on the Central Coast, with most trains stabled overnight at this facility and additional stabling available at selected stations on the network.

In early 2026, the federal government announced that it had committed a further A$230 million (approx. US$162 million) to the two-year development phase, bringing the total HSR investment to date to A$659.6 million. This phase will lock in the design, approvals process, scope and cost so that major construction contracts can be awarded.

Whilst the investment in the development phase investment is significant, it represents only a fraction of the total anticipated project cost. The business case estimates total capital costs for stage one in the range of approximately A$55bn to A$90bn, a figure that places this project among the largest single infrastructure investments in Australian history and underscores the magnitude of the final investment decision that will follow the development phase.
A staged delivery is anticipated where services would commence between Newcastle and the Central Coast two-to-three years before services continue Sydney Central and ultimately Western Sydney International.

Tenders detailed

The Commonwealth government recently announced the release of seven major tenders for the development phase of stage one, covering:

• technical and architectural adviser;
• business, operations and maintenance adviser;
• commercial and transaction adviser;
• delivery partner;
• strategic property adviser;
• environmental planning and assessment adviser; and
• demand forecasting adviser.

The range and composition of the advisory packages is informative. The inclusion of a dedicated commercial and transaction adviser, alongside a delivery partner, signals that the Authority is, at this stage, keeping its options open on delivery model — whether that ultimately involves a publicly-financed and delivered model, a public-private partnership, or some hybrid structure remains to be seen.
The strategic property adviser role points to a serious engagement with land value capture as a potential funding mechanism, a concept that has been debated in Australian infrastructure policy for many years but has rarely been implemented at scale.
In addition to any approval required under the New South Wales state planning regime, stage one requires assessment under the Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (Cth). Given the volume of tunnelling through the Central Coast and Sydney basin, approvals are likely to be complex and time-consuming. The appointment of an environmental planning and assessment adviser as one of the seven tender packages signals that the Authority is aware of this challenge, although the timeline remains ambitious.

Future outlook

Stage one of HSR will boost the Australian economy by A$250 billion over the next 50 years and produce over 99,000 new jobs, supporting sectors including construction, advanced manufacturing and tourism, according to the business case.
Transport benefits alone are projected to reach A$12.7 billion. Connecting Newcastle to Sydney with HSR could also unlock capacity for thousands of new homes, addressing housing pressure in one of Australia's most densely populated corridors. HSR is planned to be net-zero carbon in operation, running on 100% renewable energy.

The economic and social case for HSR is, on paper, compelling. Yet Australia's record on HSR proposals, a history marked by ambition which has consistently outpaced delivery, calls for measured caution.
The development phase, as presented in the business case, is highly disaggregated with 19 separate contract packages and is planned to take two years to complete. This disaggregation is designed to refine cost, scope and risk estimates, with a final government investment decision to follow, meaning that a formal commitment to construction remains contingent on the outcome of that process.
Whether this latest iteration of Australia's high-speed rail ambition results in concrete and steel in the ground remains, for now, an open question. Nevertheless, the institutional architecture, the scale of advisory investment and the policy context make it more likely than at any prior point in the history of Australian HSR proposals.

Co-written by Pat Cialdella of Pinsent Masons.