Northern Ireland's first flexibility assessment highlights challenge of meeting renewable energy goals

Published by the Utility Regulator, the assessment (119 pages/2.28 MB PDF) identifies the flexibility resources that will be required to help integrate growing volumes of renewable generation into the network while maintaining security of supply and managing network constraints.

The report examines the role of energy storage, demand-side response, flexibility markets, network reinforcement and digitalisation, and will help inform Northern Ireland’s indicative national objective for non-fossil flexibility due to be set in January 2027.

The assessment found that Northern Ireland is not currently on track to achieve its 2030 renewable electricity target. It notes that, under the base scenario, available renewable generation would provide only around 57% of electricity demand in 2030, compared with the statutory target of 80%.

The report also predicts a substantial increase in renewable energy curtailment over the coming years. Total curtailed energy volumes are forecast to grow from approximately 1.2-1.3 terawatt hours (TWh) in 2030 to around 1.8-2.1 TWh by 2033, underlining the increasing challenge of integrating additional renewable generation onto the electricity system.

Richard Murphy, renewable energy expert at Pinsent Masons, said: "The assessment highlights that flexibility solutions will play an increasingly important role in supporting Northern Ireland's energy transition. As renewable output grows, the electricity system will need greater capability to balance supply and demand, manage constraints and make more efficient use of renewable generation."

The report highlights that network constraints remain the primary driver of renewable curtailment. According to the FNA, the most significant reductions in curtailed renewable generation are expected to come from transmission reinforcement and the removal of operational constraints across the network.

"The report recognises that achieving higher levels of renewable penetration will depend not only on flexibility solutions but also on the timely delivery of network upgrades," said Murphy.

"Addressing transmission constraints, including those affecting cross-border electricity flows, will be essential if Northern Ireland is to maximise the value of its renewable resources,” he added.

The FNA also suggests that system flexibility requirements are projected to grow faster than network flexibility needs over time. This points to a growing role for technologies such as battery storage, demand-side flexibility and other non-wire solutions in helping to balance the system.

Long-duration energy storage is identified as a particularly valuable flexibility resource, especially beyond 2030. The report notes that further procurement mechanisms may be required to support deployment of such technologies at scale.

Matthew McMurray, energy expert at Pinsent Masons, said: "Given the operation of the Single Electricity Market, it is important that flexibility requirements continue to be considered from an all-island perspective. Market arrangements designed to enable flexibility will need to be developed and implemented on that basis if the benefits identified in the assessment are to be fully realised."

The report also identifies interconnection as an important source of flexibility, supporting cross-border balancing and helping to reduce renewable curtailment.

The assessment further identifies a range of barriers that could slow the deployment of flexibility resources, including the need for clearer revenue streams, greater digitalisation and market frameworks capable of appropriately rewarding flexibility providers.

McMurray said: "The report provides valuable insight for developers, investors and market participants considering the role flexibility assets may play in Northern Ireland’s energy transition. Stakeholders should review the report to understand how future flexibility markets, support mechanisms and regulatory reforms may affect project development and investment strategies.

“These investments need a clear revenue model, which will be driven by procurement rounds and the practical significance of the barriers identified in the report will therefore depend on the follow-on regulatory, network, market and procurement decisions that are needed to fully unlock the value of flexibility, starting with a storage policy position.”