The company suggests that revenues for general content will reach $2.3 billion in 2006 (up from $700 million in 2001), while revenues from on-line games and digital music will equate to $1.8 billion and $1.7 billion by 2006, respectively (up from $260 million and $30 million, respectively, in 2001).
David Card, Jupiter vice president and senior analyst, commented:
"While there is money to be made in the on-line content business, Jupiter's latest survey and market forecast numbers indicate that the mass market still largely shuns anything that smells like a subscription on-line.
"However, in the near term, media companies will create subscription services via packaging, exclusivity and added interactive features. Over time, the companies must use the gradual US broadband transition to reset industry ground rules and recondition consumers' expectations."
According to its consumer survey, 42% of on-line adults expect over time that people will have to pay for content on the internet. Despite consumers' reluctance, Jupiter analysts believe that major media properties are in a better position than they were four or five years ago because they no longer face well-financed start-ups giving away quality programming in an effort to lure new users.
"The on-line future is beginning to look a lot like cable TV. Established portals will emerge as networks that aggregate premium content and services in packages - both those that portals determine and those that users customise. This will pave the way for content providers to resell premium content through numerous partners," Card said.
Jupiter predicts that, within the general content category, the highest revenue generating genres in 2006 will be audio/video entertainment ($600 million), adult entertainment ($400 million) and financial and business news content ($350 million).
Genres expected to generate the least revenue in 2006 include: consumer/shopping aids ($85 million), content for kids ($95 million) and sports content ($95 million). According to the recent survey, fewer than 6% of on-line consumers would be willing to pay for content for kids, sports, video or shopping aids.
The Jupiter survey also indicates that, among those on-line users who would pay for content, 29% said they would likely pay their ISP. Digging deeper into survey responses, however, shows a good sign for mainstream media companies. Jupiter analysts have found that experienced on-line users - those who have an on-line tenure of five years or more - are more likely to pay publishers than they are to pay ISPs or portals.
Jupiter’s survey was completed by 2,097 US individuals.