The government’s long-awaited immigration white paper has been published and, as you may have noticed, it has sparked a lot of comment. It signals a tougher stance on overseas recruitment, with a clear message: the UK must train its own people and rely less on foreign labour. That shift is already causing concern in sectors that depend heavily on international talent, especially higher education, and means life will become more difficult for sponsoring universities. We’ll speak to an immigration expert about that.
The white paper ‘Restoring Control over the Immigration System’ sets out a number of measures aimed at reducing net migration and tightening control over the student visa system. While the government recognises the contribution made by international students, it’s clear that ministers want to stop the route being used as a back door to settlement in the UK.
Sponsors will face tougher compliance thresholds, including a requirement to maintain at least a 95% enrolment rate and a 90% course completion rate. Those figures will be assessed annually and institutions that fall short risk losing their sponsor licence. A new traffic light system - red, amber, green - will be introduced to show how institutions are performing, and those close to failing will be placed on action plans.
Post-study work rights will also be tightened. The Graduate visa will be shortened from two years to 18 months and, although details are yet to be confirmed, the government is also considering a new levy on tuition fee income from international students, with the funds reinvested into UK skills and training.
These proposals sit alongside broader changes to the immigration system but, for universities, the direction of travel is clear: higher compliance expectations, fewer benefits for students, and a potential financial hit for institutions that rely heavily on overseas enrolments.
So let’s hear more on this. Earlier I caught up with immigration specialist Alex Wright, who joined me by video link from Manchester to discuss it:
Alex Wright: “One of the things we've noticed in recent months under the new government is that there has been a significant increase in compliance with universities. It is a sector they are very focused on, and we've certainly seen a lot of action wanting to make sure that universities are doing their job correctly and they're handling their intake of international students appropriately. One thing that every university that has international students has to do every year is something called its basic compliance assessment, which are three criteria they have to set up based around things like visa refusals, course enrolment and course completion, and they have very strict criteria they have to meet on that. There are percentage criteria which the Home Office are going to be tightening for a lot of universities. That is going to be quite a change. Those are very tight criteria as they are, so certainly, I think a lot of higher education providers are going to be concerned about how that's going to appear and whether that might have any impact on them because if they routinely fail to meet these criteria then the Home Office can take drastic action such as removing their ability to sponsor international students. Obviously, the higher education sector significantly relies on them in terms of income so if a university were to lose its ability to sponsor, that would be very significant for them and that’s the kind of financial impact that some institutions quite simply may not survive. The other thing the Home Office are doing is they're making a lot more of this information public than had previously been public. So they are going to be creating a red, amber, green, system where the public can see how close higher education providers are to meeting their criteria, whether they are few percentage points away or well in the clear. So that may well be something that impacts international students’ decisions on where they choose to go to university. It might well be that faced with two sponsors with very similar courses, they might pick the one that looks like they're less of a compliance risk with the Home Office. To some extent, I'm not sure how fair that is because a number of these decisions are outside of the university's control. So some of these criteria are a little bit arbitrary. For example, visa refusal rates, course completion rates, whilst some of that is to do with the university, there are always going to be external factors that might prevent people from enrolling on, or completing, their course so we'll have to see how that one pans out, but I think the university sector is in for a lot more scrutiny than it has been in the past.”
Joe Glavina: “As I understand it, sponsors will be assessed annually on enrolment and on course completion rates, 95% and 90%, respectively. They are high numbers and could cause problems.”
Alex Wright: “They really could. I mean, it only takes some minor issues for students to not be able to complete their course. For example, one issue we've seen internationally this year is currency devaluation in certain countries outside of the UK which has led to cohorts of international students of particular nationalities simply not having the fees to complete their course. That’s something that I think we would all agree is beyond the control of either a student or a university, but if that were to push them into a percentage bracket, that could lead the university into a point where it's facing compliance action because not enough students were able to complete the course, when it wouldn't necessarily have anything to do with anything the university had done, or anything the students had done. So I'd be interested to see what the Home Office are going to put in place and how strictly they're going to apply these criteria, and if there is going to be any level of discretion around that.”
Joe Glavina: “The government is considering a levy on tuition income from international students and they say that details will be coming in the Autumn. Thoughts on that?”
Alex Wright: “I think we need to accept it's already a fairly stretched sector, and the government have already done a number of actions which have resulted in lower international student numbers. For example, one of the things that the government has done is drastically reduced the ability of postgraduate students to bring dependents with them to the UK which, whilst that has resulted in a fall in net migration, has certainly left some universities struggling to attract the talent they once had. I think we need to remember that whilst the UK does have some of the best universities in the world, it's a highly competitive sector and students are going to not just be looking at different places of study within the UK, but different places globally for their qualifications. So if we are making it more difficult for international students to come here, and we are going to be making it more financially difficult for universities to bring in those recruits. I think that raises wider questions about the funding of the university sector on a larger scale.”
Joe Glavina: “Clearly, we’re seeing a tightening of the compliance rules and you’ve mentioned the risk to sponsors’ licence but there’s also a reputational risk here for universities?”
Alex Wright: “Yes, there is definitely a reputational risk for universities. I think it's certainly something we are seeing more and more press coverage of, and there do seem to be more concerns being raised by some parts of the press as to the nature of degrees that international students are doing, whether or not those claims are justified. I think there is a possibility that the first university to mess this up might find themselves being made an example of publicly. It might well be that universities with very strong academic reputations may find themselves on the front pages of certain newspapers because of statistics and completion rates rather than anything to do with the actual level of courses they offer. So this is just another thing that universities are going to have to be aware of. If there are going to be potentially problems with an international intake, if they are facing issues, they are probably going to be asked questions about it by the press and they should be prepared to answer those. So, I think we need to remember that universities sponsor thousands and thousands of students but it's not just the impact of students that revocation would have on a university. Obviously, whilst existing students who are sponsored might well lose their places, the economic impact on a local area is significant. If a university were to lose its international cohort and have to reduce student numbers it would very likely have to significantly reduce its staffing, and that could have significant economic impacts on the local area, local trade, local housing, so I think there is a really big risk here. Universities, we know, work very hard to stay compliant. A lot of them have really great in-house teams who work with them to ensure that their student compliance remains above board. There is simply just going to be more pressure on them, and I think particularly more press scrutiny. So that's something that they should be prepared for going forward.”
The government’s white paper was published on 12 May and is called ‘Restoring control over the immigration system’. We’ve included a link to it in the transcript of this programme for you.
- Link to white paper: ‘Restoring control over the immigration system’
