Targets, transition and tree protection among issues to watch for at COP30

All eyes turn to Brazil this week, as the 30th staging of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Conference of Parties (COP) gathering gets under way in Belém – the entrance to the Amazon river - a decade after the signing of the historic Paris climate accords.

One of the primary themes at COP30 is practical implementation of the Paris Agreement, as focus falls on countries to set out how they intend to implement their national climate plans (nationally determined contributions, or NDCs) and reach their climate targets. Countries were due to submit their new or enhanced NDCs by early 2025, covering 2035 targets.

But with shifting geopolitical positions, economic uncertainties and increasing disputes over climate spending driven by dissenting governments - led by the US - COP30 will be under more scrutiny than usual, not just over policies and commitments, but over who even attends, starting with the leaders summit that gets underway on 6 November.

While the US will have no senior representation at the conference – a decision described as a “watershed moment” by EU climate commissioner Wopke Hoekstr - the previous Biden administration announced an enhanced US NDC on 19 December 2024, with a target of reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 61%-66% below 2005 levels by 2035.  

However, with only 64 countries – collectively covering around 30% of total global greenhouse gas emissions - having submitted their NDCs before the start of the conference, according to the UN’s NDC Synthesis Report published 28 October, it creates a backdrop of uncertainty 

COP30 also comes against a backdrop of July’s ruling on climate liability by the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which found that states which signed up to the Kyoto Protocol are required to fulfil the commitments they made, and that those which signed the Paris accords are obligated to deliver their NDCs, with the international law commission’s 2001 ruling on state responsibilities for internationally wrongful acts (15-page / 80KB PDF) applying to climate change law as well.

Sharon E Smith, a sustainability expert with Pinsent Masons, said the ICJ finding would bring climate change into focus for some countries.

“The ICJ legal opinion means states have an obligation to protect the environment from climate change, even if they're not a party to the Paris Agreement,” she said.

“There are also legally binding obligations for signatories to the Paris Agreement to prepare, communicate, and maintain NDCs, and to update their NDCs every five years, although there are still a number of states that haven'tsubmitted their updated NDCs yet. A party’s updated NDC should represent a progression beyond its previous NDC and reflect its highest possible ambition.”

Among the events taking place at this year’s COP30 is the launch of the 2025 Oxford University climate policy monitor: an annual tracker looking at the impact of environmental and climate change legislation around the world.

The data-driven monitor looks at the ambitiousness of net zero policy around the world, giving a clearer picture of how different jurisdictions are handling the challenges of implementing legislation.

Michael Watson, a climate expert with Pinsent Masons, explained that while the core focus for COP will remain the intergovernmental negotiations, the wider engagement of the private sector in particular starting with COP26 in Glasgow will remain a feature. In addition, the global impact of COP will be evident with the rise of the impact of the Global South developing economies.

“The ICJ has issued an advisory opinion that says to countries that if you make nationally determined contributions, you need to demonstrate that you've followed through on them or you’re exposed to risk,” he said

“The implication for business is that national policies are likely to increasingly align to promote the achievement of those NDCs – this will create opportunities for investment and alignment with those industries and markets that are being supported as a result.  Businesses are becoming better at analysing the opportunities and risks they face using transition plans, focusing on aligning their investments with climate and net zero, and thereby creating value for their stakeholders.

“There are a range of success factors for this COP but a key one will be the extent to which the participants demonstrably commit to policy implementation thereby giving clear signals to the private sector to accelerate their focus on transition and adaptation. Critically, those signals may well come from nations such as those in the Global South, where we are seeing increasing and implementation of climate policies.”

At COP29 in Baku, countries agreed a $300 billion per year funding mechanism to support climate mitigation and adaptation in developing countries, along with the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG) which called on all actors to work together to enable scaling up of climate action from all public and private sources to at least $1.3 trillion per year by 2035. 

But with funding of climate change initiatives, particularly for countries with struggling economies or facing rising financial commitments towards military spending, an increasing hot topic, much discussion is likely to look on how to fund meaningful change.

As with implementation, focus is likely to shift from the purely state-level to how the private sector can play a part, which is expected to be a common theme for this COP.

“Increasingly, the effects of climate change are being seen in the markets,” said Hayden Morgan, a sustainable finance expert with Pinsent Masons.

“The private sector will need to consider not only how to align with national commitments and mitigate the negative impacts of climate change, but also how a changing climate influences businesses strategies, and operational implementation plans, including developing resilient supply chains.”

One practical impact which may be felt early at COP30 is the new Brazilian-promoted Tropical Forests Forever Fund - a $125 billion initiative with four-fifths of the money coming from private financing support, and the rest from governments and philanthropic organisations.

The project’s aim is to encourage countries to protect their tropical forest, with satellite data being used to monitor growth and trigger payments when countries achieve enhancement goals.

“For the first time ever, it gives these countries an incentive, as the trees become worth more standing than they are felled,” added Morgan.