Davies Commission sets out options for additional runway capacity in south east of England

The Airports Commission, led by Sir Howard Davies, has shortlisted three proposals for a new runway by 2030 at either Gatwick or Heathrow Airport; which will be subject to further detailed study ahead of a public consultation next year. Although it has not shortlisted any of the proposals to construct a new 'hub' airport in the Thames Estuary due to "uncertainties and challenges", it may include plans to construct one on the Isle of Grain in Kent on the final shortlist if further study proves it to be "credible".

The report also sets out a number of recommendations for immediate action by the Government, ahead of the publication of the Commission's final report the summer of 2015. These include operational improvements, airspace changes, better en-route traffic management and improvements to the transport links connecting those airports with spare capacity.

"This report is the product of extensive consultation, independent analysis and careful consideration by the commissioners," said Davies.

"The UK enjoys excellent connectivity today. The capacity challenge is not yet critical but it will become so if no action is taken soon and our analysis clearly supports the provision of one net additional runway by 2030. In the meantime we encourage the Government to act on our recommendations to make the best of our existing capacity," he said.

The Airports Commission was set up in September 2012 to consider how the UK can retain its status as a global aviation hub. Although the Government cancelled plans to construct a third runway at Heathrow when it took office in 2009 it has acknowledged the need for an alternative. Passenger demand for London's airports is forecast to increase from 140 million a year in 2012 to 400 million passengers a year by 2050, according to the Greater London Authority; and existing 'hub' airport Heathrow is currently operating at almost full capacity.

In its interim report, the commission set out the need for one net additional runway in the south east of England by 2030, and likely demand for a second additional runway to be operational by 2050. It has come to these conclusions by considering a range of assumptions about future demand growth, and with reference to the Committee on Climate Change's advice to the Government on meeting its carbon reduction commitments. The report calls for a mix of both hub and non-hub airport capacity in order to support a range of airline business models.

The three options shortlisted for further consideration by the commission include proposals made by both Gatwick and Heathrow Airports for the construction of new runways. It also includes a further proposal by campaigning group Heathrow Hub to extend the existing northern runway at Heathrow to at least 6,000 metres, allowing it to operate as two independent runways. Proposals for second runways at Stansted and Birmingham have not been included on the shortlist, but these could be included in the commission's final report as a potential location for a post-2030 second new runway.

Addressing the House of Commons after the publication of the report, Transport Secretary Patrick McLoughlin said that the Government would be "looking carefully" at the commission's headline recommendation. Although it would not be commenting on the "respective merits of the options which have and have not been shortlisted", it would publish its response in the spring, he said.

"We need airports that put our country at the front of global competition and allow people to get to where they want to go," he said. "But we also want to see airports which are quieter and can meet our carbon commitments."

The Government's response would also set out its thinking on the "form and scale or any appropriate relief" that could be put in place to address the concerns of people who live around the sites that have been shortlisted or will be further considered by the commission, he said.